The concern about Russia potentially deploying chemical weapons in Ukraine
There are assessments by the US government that Russian President, Vladimir Putin, might opt to use chemical weapons in Ukraine before considering a nuclear confrontation with NATO if Russian troops continue facing losses.
According to a recent report by Politico, the US has raised concerns, with sources stating that this comes in the midst of efforts by the administration to ensure allies are prepared for such a possibility. The administration is also endeavoring to mobilize new resources and investments in the manufacturing of detection systems for potential chemical weapon usage.
Anonymous US administration officials, including those from the U.S. and Defense Department, have expressed these concerns as reported by Politico.
The report also indicates that many officials within the Department of Defense anticipate a stalling of the fighting during the winter months, with neither side making significant territorial gains.
However, in the event of continued battlefield setbacks or a complete collapse of the Russian army, US officials believe that Moscow might resort to deploying chemical weapons, including those previously linked to the poisoning of Alexei Navalny.
An official mentioned that such an attack involving easily concealable chemicals would make it harder for Western countries to attribute directly to Moscow.
It was also noted that Russia could potentially use pharmaceutical-based agents, colloquially known as PBAs, which can be turned into an aerosol or utilized in munitions for causing damage to a large group of people.
The report also highlighted that the US has been aware for some time of Russia’s efforts to enhance its chemical weapons capability.
Senators were briefed this fall about Russia’s chemical weapon stockpile and the threat in Ukraine, as stated by a congressional aide. The concerns about potential use in Ukraine arise as U.S. officials increasingly anticipate that Russia may turn to unconventional warfare if it continues facing military setbacks.
This report follows the dispatch of teams by the Pentagon to Eastern European countries for refreshing their armed forces on procedures in the event of a chemical or biological threat. At the same time, the US has supplied Kyiv with chemical, biological, and nuclear protective equipment as part of substantial security assistance.
Senior officials are also working towards reshaping the US approach to both preparation for and response to potential chemical weapons attacks by various actors, including Russia.
The US reportedly aims to enhance investment in manufacturing capabilities for early detection systems and wearable technology, such as masks. Additionally, it seeks to reassess methods for obtaining improved data and intelligence regarding countries’ capabilities and stockpiles.
In 2018, Russia used Novichok, a nerve agent, in the poisoning of Alexei Navalny, a vocal critic of Putin, and Sergei Skripal, a former Russian intelligence officer who became a British citizen. Skripal and his daughter required medical intervention after being exposed to Novichok that year.
In 2020, Navalny was hospitalized in Germany, with officials stating there was “unequivocal proof” that he was poisoned with Novichok while on a flight. Both men survived the attacks.
“We’ve always been aware that they have the means and capability to use these types of weapons,” said a Pentagon official. “Our assessment remains the same. We maintain close observation of this conflict, but we’ve not seen anything that would make us change our posture.”
